Flood forecast formulation methodology In India?

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Flood forecast formulation methodology

 

Conventional statistical correlation methodology: It includes gauge to gauge correlation between base station (upstream of forecasting station) and forecasting station. This method provides advance warning time from 6 to 24 hrs depending upon the terrain.  IMD provides 3 day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) in ranges of 0, 0.1-10mm, 11-25 mm, 26-37mm, 38-50 mm, 51-75 mm, 76-100 mm and >100 mm for various  river sub-basins to the concerned Divisional Flood Control Room of CWC through their Flood Meteorological Offices spread all over the country.

Rainfall-Runoff mathematical modeling technology: It includes mathematical modeling of river basin based on rainfall runoff methodology. Input taken is rainfall provided by IMD through its Automatic Weather Station (AWS) & Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) stations and CWC telemetry stations.  The three days advance forecast is generated using various available rainfall data products as a major input into the system like IMD Gridded Rainfall product and other global rainfall products such as GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation), GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) and the IMD forecasted rainfall data (WRF- Weather Research and Forecast, GFS- Global Forecast System). Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model products viz. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model which is given for 3 days and Global Forecasting System (GFS) model product which is given for 10 days are seamlessly shared by IMD for use in mathematical models by CWC. Mathematical model has been used for formulation of advisories and these advisories are shared with stake holders using dedicated website.

Besides this, CWC is also providing inundation forecast in the same platform using 2-dimensional models for main Brahmaputra and is also shared with beneficiaries through the same website.

Modernization of dissemination of flood forecasts: Dissemination of flood forecasts have been modernised by having a dedicated website. The flood information is also shared via various social media platforms of CWC Flood Forecast dissemination system. Daily Flood Situation Report cum Advisories are also shared with all stake holders as well as general public. CWC has signed an MOU with M/s Google Inc for using their vast repository of high resolution Digital Elevation Models and the power of dissemination to send alerts regarding inundation through Google Platform using the flood forecasts issued by CWC.

Flood Forecasting by CWC uses all the latest technology including remote-sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS), Internet, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in development/ running/ formulation and calibration of Mathematical models and for providing Inundation Alerts which are closely at par with international standards.

 

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